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  • Writer's pictureSean Smith

The State of the GTA Housing Market: November 2023

Real estate in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to feel the weight of high borrowing costs and uncertain economic conditions in November 2023. Reflecting these challenging circumstances, GTA home sales saw a slump on a year-over-year basis, while a rise in listings brought some relief from last year's tighter supply. Despite an increased selection for buyers, selling prices essentially stood still compared to the previous year.

total transactions comparison chart
Total Residential Transactions

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron commented, “Inflation and elevated borrowing costs have taken their toll on affordability. This has been no more apparent than in the interest rate sensitive housing market. However, it does appear relief is on the horizon. Bond yields, which underpin fixed-rate mortgages have been trending lower and an increasing number of forecasters are anticipating Bank of Canada rate cuts in the first half of 2024. Lower rates will help alleviate affordability issues for existing homeowners and those looking to enter the market”.

According to GTA REALTORS®, there were 4,236 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2023. This figure represented a six percent drop from the sales recorded in November 2022. At the same time, November 2023 saw a 16.5 percent increase in new listings compared to the same period in the previous year. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales saw a slight uptick from their October 2023 figures, whereas new listings experienced a 5.5 percent decrease.

new listings comparison chart
New Listings

Comparing November 2023 to November 2022, both the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark and the average selling price of $1,082,179 remained virtually unchanged. However, on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark and the average selling price recorded declines of 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.

Jason Mercer, TRREB's Chief Market Analyst, pointed out, “Home prices have adjusted from their peak in response to higher borrowing costs. This has provided some relief for buyers, from an affordability perspective. As mortgage rates trend lower next year and the population continues to grow at a record pace, expect demand to increase relative to supply. This will eventually lead to renewed growth in home prices".

average sale price comparison chart
Average Selling Price

John DiMichele, TRREB CEO, emphasized the primary role of housing, stating, “Houses and condos are meant to be homes, first and foremost. We know the demand for homes, both rental and ownership, will grow for years to come. We have seen some productive policy decisions recently that should help with housing affordability, including allowing existing insured mortgage holders to switch lenders without the stress test. Additionally, in the interest of household and economic stability, we continue to call on the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to apply the same approach to uninsured mortgages. It also goes without saying that further policy work is required to bring more supply online”.

year over years sales and price comparison chart
Year Over Year Sales and Price Comparison By Housing Type

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